« I cannot reword »

The President’s return is off to a rough start: the lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly limits the necessary room for maneuver for his reformist promise. However, this is not really new: the same diagnosis applied last year. Under these circumstances, how can we explain Emmanuel Macron’s decision to embark on a « major political initiative » by inviting various political actors in our landscape?

Note that initially supposed to be limited to the formations of the « Republican arc, » the invitation was ultimately extended to « all political forces represented in our Assemblies. » Those who were counting on the absence of LFI and RN in Saint-Denis had misunderstood. The President wanted to mobilize without exclusion, creating a seminarist dynamic from which « useful agreements for France » are supposed to emerge. Can we really believe in it? In reality, three strategic dimensions explain his approach.

A lire aussi: Emmanuel Macron, roi du cliffhanger

First, there is the risk of a « crack » in his own building, which could liken his second term to an unstoppable slide if he doesn’t take precautions now. Thus, Emmanuel Macron wants to avoid a premature « de-presidentialization » at all costs. We understand him. The Interior Ministry and Bercy see their hosts making gestures that already resemble a positional war. As for Edouard Philippe, former Prime Minister, he is counting on the upcoming senatorial elections to intensify the power struggle within the government itself. A legacy that is quickly translated rarely reflects the vibrant health of the one claimed to be inheriting it…

Responsibilities. Emmanuel Macron positions himself at the center of the political game, as the inviting power of our democratic diversity, putting political leaders – including those from opposition parties – to work who had no choice but to respond… In doing so, he holds everyone accountable under the watchful eye of the French people. In his recent interview with the weekly magazine Le Point, the President summarizes things in his own way: « The difficulty is that the political forces closest to us are not united! » He brings them together. Or at least, orchestrates the spectacle of their own contradictions…

How can one forget the words of a former head of state, who also faced the discomfort of a relative parliamentary majority, on the evening of the 1988 legislative election: « Of course, I will be delighted to see an increasing number of French people and representatives of the people gather around the choices that I have submitted to you […] I have invited the Prime Minister to shape these projects and present them to Parliament as soon as possible whenever they need to become law. We will see at that time who is and who is not willing to take the extended hand? »

A lire aussi: The letter from Emmanuel Macron to party leaders has been revealed, discussing the referendum, social conference, and immigration.

Emmanuel Macron has a deep understanding of Mitterrand. He also doesn’t forget what Emmanuel Macron taught him. It was in November 2016 (a long time ago…), a few months before his first election as president: the candidate then denounced the « emptiness of our political system which prevents majorities of ideas on the grounds that they weaken the apparatus ». Same diagnosis, same mechanism. The President summons his own refrain and reconnects with the original Macronism to find a second wind.

Tripartition. As Emmanuel Macron points out: « We can only form project majorities, which is not a problem! ». And if we understand, of course, that the message is primarily addressed to LR, the President is rebuilding, more broadly, a strategic framework – tripartition – so conducive to his interests: « The condition for the values I uphold to endure is that republican forces work together: social democrats, centrists, environmentalists, liberal right and republican right. Those who have ambition should not forget it ». The statement is clear. And probably not only applicable to the presidential deadline of 2027.

By then, indeed, a reshuffle could make it very operational, resulting in the rallying of some mentioned « ambitious » individuals within the already significantly depleted « republican forces » over the past six years.

Quant aux extrêmes, bien qu’invités à Saint-Denis, ils demeurent toutefois assis à la table des menaces dans le tableau que dresse le Président…

In his role as the « master of clocks, » Emmanuel Macron also mentions the possibility of using a referendum (a quintessentially Gaullist tool) and confirms that he will make the best use of everything that the Constitution allows him to do (« Nuclear deterrence was adopted by using Article 49.3 » …).

A lire aussi: Un 49.3 pour la rentrée des députés à l’Assemblée?

Mais dans ce rapport singulier qu’il entretient au temps, comment exclure une dimension plus « prospective » au cœur de sa pensée ? Un dessein.

In 2032, Emmanuel Macron will be 55 years old. A very good age to become the president of the Republic… This is also allowed by the Constitution, in theory. For this, the impact of his ten years spent at the Elysée must be one of movement and leadership – something that Saint-Denis has staged, along with other future actions that will undoubtedly contribute to it. But, more fundamentally, the legacy must leave a lasting mark on our democratic practice.

Prolonger le macronisme, même si Macron demeure en réserve de la République. Précisément, évoquant lui-même ce legs, le chef de l’Etat met en garde : « Si le môle central que j’ai rassemblé se divise, le risque, c’est de ne pas être au second tour ». Un tribut démocratiquement vital, donc… Et d’ajouter : « J’aimerais que l’on retienne ce combat pour rebâtir notre nation, son indépendance, son chemin ». Très gaullien encore. Comme une référence subliminale à la notion de recours…

Laurent Fary, directeur associé de l’agence Epoka en charge des affaires publiques.

Comments are closed.