Nine months before the European elections, there are some certainties and a few remaining doubts that need to be clarified.

Nine months before the day of voting in the European elections (June 9th), we have a fairly good idea of the forces that will compete in the spring. Although not all uncertainties related to the lead candidates have been resolved yet.

If we start on the right, let’s consider that these matters have been settled for a long time. Coming in first in 2019 with over 23% of the votes, Jordan Bardella is once again leading the National Rally’s list, as he announced this week. It’s more of a confirmation than new information. Meanwhile, Eric Zemmour and his movement Reconquête! will also participate in this competition, with Marion Maréchal at the top of the list.

Will Bellamy or Barnier join Les Républicains?

Du côté de Debout la France, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan nous avait confié en juin, que « Debout la France sera présent et je ne serai pas tête de liste. » On en est toujours là, même si les noms de l’ex-RN Florian Philippot, ou du philosophe Michel Onfray sont parfois avancés, au moins pour intégrer la liste.

On the right, within The Republicans party, the question is not settled, but it seems to be between François-Xavier Bellamy (leader of his camp in 2018) and former European Commissioner Michel Barnier. At the end of September, a meeting will take place between the two men and LR leader Éric Ciotti (which will also involve Franck Proust, a former European deputy from Gard) to discuss the matter.

Séjourné envisagé pour Renaissance

During the Renaissance, the name of the person who will lead the list was not determined either. Stéphane Séjourné (leader of the Renaissance group in the Strasbourg Parliament) for 2024 is being widely discussed. « If it’s him, he has the ability to mobilize people based on what they have in common, to make progress, » appreciated Irène Tolleret, the Eurodeputy from Hérault, this week.

Quant à la possible liste de défense de la ruralité, elle pourrait se dévoiler (avec Willy Schraen à sa tête) lors de la première quinzaine de novembre.

But it is on the left that the greatest suspense remained. Would La Nupes be reappointed after their electoral success in the legislative elections? Quickly, the Greens and Communists responded negatively, much to the dismay of La France insoumise. Marie Toussaint, 36 years old, will be the figurehead of the ecologists, Léon Deffontaines, 27 years old, will be the figurehead of Fabien Roussel’s party.

La Nupes pas reconduite

Restait à trancher au sein du PS, où deux tendances semblaient s’opposer, entre la ligne Faure qu’on a pu penser enclin à s’accorder avec les Insoumis, et la ligne Mayer-Rossignol-Delga qui y était franchement hostile. D’union, in fine, il n’y aura pas, à la satisfaction de Kamel Chibli, vice-président de la Région Occitanie : « Les écologistes et les communistes ont ouvert la voix par rapport aux Insoumis dont on ne partage pas le positionnement idéologique sur l’Europe. On est content d’avoir gagné ce rapport de force. Après, il peut y avoir des accords avec d’autres micro-partis, ou des personnalités de la société civile ».

We still believe in LFI.

Et d’estimer que Raphaël Glucksmann (Place publique), déjà tête de liste en 2018, pourrait récidiver : « Il a réussi à se rendre visible et audible au cours de ce mandat ».

But at LFI, we haven’t given up on the union yet. « The young people from Nupes have developed a common program of 166 proposals. We must listen to their call, » hopes Nathalie Oziol, LFI deputy from Hérault. One almost certainty: if there were to be a union list, Ségolène Royal would not take the lead as she had proposed. On the LFI side, they are more inclined to give it to an elected official from EELV.