What will be the actual increase in electricity tariffs in 2024?

l’essentielWe now have more information about the increase in regulated electricity prices that will come into effect from February 1st. It is not surprising that it will be significant, as it has been in the past two reassessments, but it could have been even worse.

The question has stirred up the political scene this week: with less and less protection from the tariff shield implemented by the State following the Ukrainian conflict, how will French consumers be affected by regulated electricity prices in 2024?

ENI will pay 50 million euros in compensation to 100,000 of its customers due to excessively high electricity bills.

De premiers éléments de réponse ont été apportés en cours de semaine par Emmanuelle Wargon, la responsable de la Commission de régulation de l’énergie (CRE), qui a annoncé que les calculs théoriques du gendarme du secteur allaient sans doute amener à une proposition de hausse des tarifs située entre 10 et 20%.

A substantial increase, even more detrimental as it would follow two similar increases that occurred last August and February – regulated tariffs are always revised twice a year, on February 1st and August 1st. This has triggered the anger of some rebellious parliamentarians, such as François Ruffin or Clémence Guetté, who have once again called for a price freeze to protect the budget of the French people.

The response will be given at the end of the year.

The Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire, like Emmanuelle Wargon, quickly responded with a reassuring promise that the increase would be kept below 10%. As the former Minister of Housing herself pointed out, « it is important to separate the calculation of theoretical regulated tariffs, which is the application of the calculation formula, from the decision which falls under the government’s jurisdiction, namely the part that is acceptable and the part that must be funded by the state budget. »

In other words, if the CRE does indeed propose a theoretical increase of 20%, the government can very well choose not to pass on the full burden to French consumers.

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Pour connaître le montant exact de cette hausse, qui sera donc pour les tarifs réglementés et selon les promesses faites par le ministre de l’Économie au maximum de 10% au 1er février 2024, il faudra néanmoins attendre encore plusieurs semaines. La hausse réelle ne sera en effet pas confirmée avant la fin de l’année par le gouvernement.