After the successful match against Tonga on Sunday, October 1st in Marseille, Jacques Nienaber was asked about the worst-case scenario that could eliminate South Africa from the group stage.
For the past 15 days, the South Africans have been promised a quarter-final match against France in Saint-Denis on Sunday, October 15th, following their defeat to Ireland (8-13) in the group stage. After a victorious match against Tonga at the Vélodrome on Sunday, the Boks secured a bonus point and did what they needed to do to almost guarantee their qualification with 15 points.
However, they will have to wait until Saturday, October 7th for the Celtic duel between Ireland (14 points) and Scotland (10 points) at the Stade de France (9 PM). Because the Scottish XV can still disrupt everything, even if the scenario eliminating the South African title holders remains just as unlikely as the one that saw the Italians beat the All Blacks… It would indeed require them to beat the Irish XV with a bonus point and at least a 25-point difference while allowing the Irish team to also get a bonus point. Mathematically possible, materially unachievable.
L’Ecosse se qualifie en remportant le match avec une différence de huit points.
Cette pure fiction qui verrait alors les trois équipes à égalité à 15 points et être départagées aux confrontations directes (1er critère) puis au goal-average (2e critère), offrant à l’Ecosse la première place et à l’Irlande la deuxième. Une hypothèse qui n’a absolument pas traversé l’esprit de Jacques Nienaber, le sélectionneur des Boks, très surpris d’être interrogé sur le sujet après le succès face aux Tongiens. « Si je crois qu’ils pourraient se mettre d’accord pour avoir un certain écart de points et sortir l’Afrique du Sud ? J’espère que non, a-t-il lancé. On appelle ça un match arrangé, et je n’y crois pas. Le rugby est propre. Ça serait très décevant, n’est-ce pas ? »
Especially, one could almost forget the simplest scenario to describe Scotland: a tie between the two Celtic teams with 14 points each. To achieve this, they would need to defeat Ireland by a margin of at least eight points, which would eliminate the top-ranked nation. They would likely then face France in the quarterfinals, allowing South Africa to claim first place and setting up a match against the All Blacks in the quarterfinals.
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