What impact can terrorism have on the European elections?

Will the terrorist threat have an impact on next year’s European elections? In any case, eight months before the vote, far-right parties are emphasizing this issue by linking it to the migration crisis. « There is undoubtedly a clear connection between the murder we mourn today, the massive immigration in our country, and the lack of effective fight against radical Islamism, » stated Gironde deputy Edwige Diaz, just four hours after the assassination of Dominique Bernard in Arras.

In other European countries, right-wing parties are pushing this theme, with some success. According to a compilation of polls in September, conducted by Le Grand Continent, parties to the right of the European People’s Party (EPP, right-wing) are making significant progress, particularly in Eastern European Union countries. Some of them are currently in power either as part of coalitions or directly, as is the case in Italy.

Trois faiblesses

This actual progression, which some fear may eventually jeopardize the European project, however, has significant weaknesses. First, far-right parties are divided in the European Parliament: on one side, the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, dominated by the National Rally and Salvini’s Lega, on the other side, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which include the Polish PiS or Melonie’s Brothers of Italy. Others remain alone, like Orban’s Fidesz or because they do not yet have European deputies.

Deuxième faiblesse : le mur de la réalité. Entre la candidate Giorgia Meloni et la présidente du Conseil italien Meloni Giorgia, il y a un monde. La première ministre a dû mettre de l’eau dans son vin vis-à-vis de l’Europe et se rendre compte que ce qu’elle proposait en matière migratoire était irréalisable.

Finally, the third weakness came from Poland on Sunday where PiS emerged as the leading party but was unable to form a coalition unlike Donald Tusk with the left.